Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
